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Exponential Growth and Decay

Linear change adds the same amount every step. Exponential change multiplies by the same amount every step — and that difference is enormous. A bacteria population that doubles every hour, a wildlife population shrinking 6%6\% per year, a radioactive sample losing half its mass every decade: all of these multiply by a fixed factor over and over, so they're modeled by exponential functions.

Every problem in this topic uses one formula: y=abty = a \cdot b^t, where aa is the starting amount, bb is the factor you multiply by each time period, and tt counts the time periods. If b>1b > 1 the quantity grows; if 0<b<10 < b < 1 it decays. Learn to read aa and bb out of a word problem and the rest is just plugging in.

Growth factor vs. rate

Word problems usually give you a rate rr as a percent, not the factor bb directly. The translation: growth means b=1+rb = 1 + r, and decay means b=1rb = 1 - r, with rr written as a decimal. So the model becomes y=a(1+r)ty = a(1 + r)^t for growth and y=a(1r)ty = a(1 - r)^t for decay.

Grows 8%8\% per year means b=1+0.08=1.08b = 1 + 0.08 = 1.08 — the whole amount (100%100\%) plus 8%8\% more. Shrinks 8%8\% per year means b=10.08=0.92b = 1 - 0.08 = 0.92 — you keep 92%92\% of what you had. That second reading is the useful one: the base of a decay model tells you the fraction that remains each period.

This works in reverse too. Handed a model like y=1200(0.94)ty = 1200(0.94)^t, read the base: 0.94<10.94 < 1, so it's decay, and since 10.94=0.061 - 0.94 = 0.06, the quantity loses 6%6\% per time period. The 12001200 is the starting amount, because plugging in t=0t = 0 gives y=12001=1200y = 1200 \cdot 1 = 1200.

The table below shows a growth model that doubles each step, y=100(2)ty = 100(2)^t: notice each output is the one above times the factor 22, not the one above plus a fixed amount.

ttyy
00100100
11200200
22400400
33800800

Spotting growth vs. decay instantly

You don't need a graph or a table — just look at the base. y=5(1.3)ty = 5(1.3)^t grows because 1.3>11.3 > 1. y=40(0.75)ty = 40(0.75)^t decays because the base is between 00 and 11. A base of exactly 11 would mean nothing changes at all.

One caution: exponential decay gets smaller and smaller but never reaches zero. Multiplying a positive amount by 0.90.9 over and over shrinks it forever without ever hitting 00. On a graph, the curve flattens toward the horizontal axis without touching it.

Below, the solid curve y=1.5xy = 1.5^x grows (base above 11) while the dashed curve y=0.6xy = 0.6^x decays (base between 00 and 11). Both pass through (0,1)(0, 1), and both flatten toward the horizontal axis without ever crossing it.

-2-1121234xy

Half-life

Half-life is decay with the cleanest possible factor: b=12b = \dfrac{1}{2}. If a substance has a half-life of 66 hours, the amount is cut in half every 66 hours. The model is y=a(12)ny = a\left(\dfrac{1}{2}\right)^n, where nn is the number of half-lives that have passed — not the number of hours. First convert the elapsed time into half-lives by dividing, then use the formula. Example 4 walks through it.

Worked examples

Example 1: bacteria growth

A dish starts with 400400 bacteria, and the population grows 25%25\% per hour. How many bacteria are there after 33 hours?

Identify the starting amount and rate: a=400a = 400, r=0.25r = 0.25, growth
Build the model with b=1+rb = 1 + ry=400(1.25)ty = 400(1.25)^t
Substitute t=3t = 3y=400(1.25)3y = 400(1.25)^3
Compute the power: 1.253=1.9531251.25^3 = 1.953125y=400(1.953125)y = 400(1.953125)
Multiplyy=781.25781y = 781.25 \approx 781

Answer: About 781781 bacteria

Example 2: a shrinking sample

A 500500-gram sample of a substance loses 10%10\% of its mass each day. How much remains after 44 days?

Losing 10%10\% means keeping 90%90\%, so b=10.10=0.9b = 1 - 0.10 = 0.9
Build the modely=500(0.9)ty = 500(0.9)^t
Substitute t=4t = 4y=500(0.9)4y = 500(0.9)^4
Compute the power: 0.94=0.65610.9^4 = 0.6561y=500(0.6561)y = 500(0.6561)
Multiplyy=328.05328y = 328.05 \approx 328

Answer: About 328328 grams

Example 3: reading a model

A population is modeled by y=1200(0.94)ty = 1200(0.94)^t, where tt is in years. Is this growth or decay, what is the rate, and what is the starting population?

Check the base: 0.940.94 is between 00 and 11, so this is decay
Find the rate from the baser=10.94=0.06r = 1 - 0.94 = 0.06
Convert to a percent: the population shrinks 6%6\% per year
Find the starting amount by plugging in t=0t = 0y=1200(0.94)0=1200y = 1200(0.94)^0 = 1200

Answer: Decay at 6%6\% per year, starting from a population of 12001200.

Example 4: radioactive half-life

A radioactive isotope has a half-life of 66 hours. If a sample starts at 8080 mg, how much remains after 1818 hours?

Convert time to half-livesn=186=3n = \dfrac{18}{6} = 3
Build the model with b=12b = \dfrac{1}{2}y=80(12)3y = 80\left(\dfrac{1}{2}\right)^3
Compute the power(12)3=18\left(\dfrac{1}{2}\right)^3 = \dfrac{1}{8}
Multiplyy=8018=10y = 80 \cdot \dfrac{1}{8} = 10
Sense check: 8040201080 \to 40 \to 20 \to 10 across three half-lives ✓

Answer: 1010 mg

Try one yourself

Common questions

How do I convert a percent rate to the base b?

Write the percent as a decimal first (divide by 100100), then add it to 11 for growth or subtract it from 11 for decay. A 3%3\% growth rate gives b=1.03b = 1.03; a 15%15\% decay rate gives b=0.85b = 0.85. The most common mistake is skipping the decimal step and writing 1+8=91 + 8 = 9 instead of 1+0.08=1.081 + 0.08 = 1.08.

What's the difference between exponential and linear change?

Linear change adds a fixed amount each period: 200,250,300,350200, 250, 300, 350. Exponential change multiplies by a fixed factor each period: 200,300,450,675200, 300, 450, 675. To test data, check the differences between consecutive values (constant means linear) and the ratios (constant means exponential).

Can an exponential decay ever reach zero?

No. Each period keeps a fixed positive fraction of the amount, so the value gets closer and closer to zero without ever landing on it. That's why decay graphs flatten along the horizontal axis instead of crossing it.

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